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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd