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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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